Weava Collection - Research on Economy (USD, EUR, Forex, GBP, euro)
(2) The independence of the Fed is at risk
- EURJPY short-term bias remains on downside
Elliott Wave Analysis: AUDUSD Looking Quite Bearish; More Weakness May Follow
- we now expect pair to stay bearish in sessions ahead, and ideally unfold a five wave movement within the current bigger wave three that can be underway down to 0.7250 or even 0.7130.
Nagy csata zajlik, erre érdemes figyelni - Napi.hu
- Az arany árfolyama eközben technikailag emelkedő trendben van, a tavaly év végén megindult drágulás most azonban ellenállásba ütközhet - hívja fel a figyelmet Hansen. A 2011-es árfolyamcsúcs óta ugyanis érvényben van egy csökkenő trendvonal, amelyről már többször is lefelé pattant el a nemesfém ára
- az koránt sem egyértelmű, hogy a júniusban esedékes törvényhozási választásokon meg tudja szerezni a többséget, s ez kormányozhatatlanná teheti Franciaországot
BoE Reaction: Risk-reward doesn't favour chasing near-term GBP upside - ING
- While the bar for a significant move lower in the pound has decreased, we still think the near-term risks to GBP/USD lie towards 1.24-1.25. For EUR/GBP, a slightly more hawkish BoE could provide a buffer and prevent a breach of 0.90; still our view remains that a 0.88-0.90 range is likely over the summer period (if we also take stock of ECB-driven EUR strength).”
ECB Preview: balanced risks could provide a buying opportunity - 3 scenarios | Forex Crunch
- “Balanced risks” is basically priced in and should keep EUR/USD balanced.
Draghi's hawkish tapering speech sends the euro higher
- With the EURUSD posting strong gains and rising above 1.1300, the price action looks bullish from here. Further gains could be seen coming with any pullbacks limited to 1.1300. However, in terms of the fundamentals, there is scope for the common currency to give up its gains especially with this Friday's flash inflation estimates. Therefore, the current gains in EURUSD could be seen as a rally led by market expectations. With a good two months to go, there is scope for the ECB to readjust its forward guidance as well. In the near term, EURUSD remains poised to the upside with initial support seen at 1.1300.
Merkel újra bekeményített - Napi.hu
- Merkel újra bekeményített
Ismét kudarcba fulladt a londoni kormány próbálkozása, hogy megpuhítsa Berlint a brexittel kapcsolatban.
'EUR to have a Brexit-type Pound-collapse if Le Pen wins' - Yohay Elam, Forex Crunch
- As Macron has better chances to beat Le Pen than Fillon, we could see a big chunk of the upside move happening already after the first round on April 23rd, in case Macron indeed makes it to the second round. Another sigh of relief that translates into another rise for the euro could come on May 7th, albeit at a much smaller scale. If Fillon makes it to the second round, we could see the euro drop after the first round and make a big leap on Fillon's victory in the second round.
Ellenforradalom: a brit kormány visszavonja a brexitet? - Napi.hu
- Ellenforradalom: a brit kormány visszavonja a brexitet?
Theresa May brit miniszterelnök rákényszerülhet, hogy visszavonja az Egyesült Királyság uniós kilépési szándékáról szóló dokumentumot, azaz visszavonja a brexitet.
Elliott Wave Analysis: AUDUSD Showing Signs Of More Weakness | Forex Crunch
- AUDUSD Showing Signs Of More Weakness
EUR/USD: Underlying Trend Higher But Turning Neutral S/T; Where To Target? - BTMU | Forex Crunch
- expecting the pair to trade in a 1.0900-1.1400
Trading a Trump impeachment with the US dollar in 3 phases | Forex Crunch
- Trading a Trump impeachment with the US dollar in 3 phases
French election preview: Why a “shock” win could be good for the euro
Loonie Posted 14-Month Highs
- in a daily time frame the closing today will suggest whether a long or short position need to be taken. In an 4-hour timeframe, if further down candles printed for the next few hours, then a short position is likely to be taken with Target 1 at 1.3560, which is also a confluence of 23.6 Fibonacci level. Target 2 at 1.3540.
Már kész Trump újabb mesterterve, csak még pár embert el kell távolítania | PORTFOLIO.HU
- Jöhet a gyenge dollár politikája?
USD/CAD poised for a breakout of 1.3500 – Scotiabank
- USDCAD appears poised to break above 1.35 with risk to the early March high in the mid-1.35s. Support appears limited ahead of 1.3420
EUR/USD Bullish Divergence at Strong Support
- The EUR/USD pair has completed the first descending wave. Possibly, today the price may be corrected. The second target is at 1.0707. Right now, the instrument is expected to grow towards 1.0615.
- If 1.0500 stays strong the POC could reject the price towards 1.0618, 1.0650 and 1.0700.
Vége a szélcsendnek, viharos időszak következhet - Napi.hu
Elliott Wave Analysis: S&P500, NZDJPY and EURJPY | Forex Crunch
- We are looking at NZDJPY and EURJPY with a nice bearish price action already in progress; NZDJPY for 76.00 and EURJPY for 123 in A).
EUR/USD could advance towards 1.13 on the next ECB moves | Forex Crunch
- “Given our bullish USD view, expecting more Fed hikes than the market in 2017-18 and tax reform this year, we prefer to express our bullish EUR views against the JPY.
BK Daily Webinar (46) on Vimeo
- BK Daily Webinar
- BK Daily Webinar (46)
When Should We Sell the Yen?
- For now, I'm just introducing the idea of getting back on board with a longer term bearish Yen trend and will start to monitor closely to see if any signals present to sell the Yen (buy USDJPY) in the sessions ahead.
- The screenshot below shows a EURUSD Call option with a 1.05985 strike, 7-day expiry and for €10,000 would cost $41.60, which would also be the maximum risk.
JPY: 'Watch, Wait, And Prepare To Go Long EUR/JPY In The Next Few Weeks' - SocGen
- Watch, wait, and prepare to go long EUR/JPY in the next few weeks,
Elliott Wave Analysis: EURUSD Undergoing A Reversal From The Top; More Weakness May Follow
- we will see a minimum three wave decline to unfold in the next trading sessions and a break beneath the previous minor wave four swing at 1.0844 level, that may cause the GAP at 1.080 to be filled.
- To the downside, the near term support at 1.2900 will be critical, and a break down below this level signals a continuation towards 1.2600 eventually.
Cable and Loonie Dominate Trade as Rest of FX Stands Still | BK Asset Management
- he pair remains on back foot after the UK election and as we noted earlier if the eco data this week proves disappointing the pair could break the 1.2600 figure and set its sights on key support of 1.2500.
Macron legyalulja Orbánt, Kaczynskit és Mayt - Napi.hu
- Összességében az FT publicistája szerint Macronnak sem politikai, sem gazdasági szempontból nem érdeke a brexit felvizezése.
What the ECB Will Do This Week - Bloomberg
- The central bank seems in no rush to tighten monetary policy.
Elliot Wave Forecast - EURUSD | Forex Crunch
- Elliot Wave Forecast – EURUSD
Dollar 'should' recover by another 20-30% at a minimum
- Dollar 'should' recover
- Eurusd will go back to 1.0550
Sterling stabilises as doubts cast on latest poll
- 3, Hung Parliament (slim chance) - This outcome is the tail risk that the markets have not been expecting, and thus would have the biggest impact on UK asset prices. We would expect the political uncertainty that could arise from a hung parliament and a potential change in leadership would weigh heavily on the pound and the FTSE 100. We continue to think that there is more scope for further downside in the FTSE 100 rather than the pound where there is a sizeable short position, even if it has been reduced in reduced in recent weeks.
- 2, Conservative win with a slim majority (seems likely) – this could initially take the wind out of cable, and it could put a lid on the prospect of GBP/USD getting back above 1.30. We think there is a chance of a deeper sell off back towards 1.20 if it looks like Theresa May won’t have a big enough mandate to agree a trade deal with the UK.
USD/JPY Forecast: What if Fed begins balance sheet normalization?
- USD/JPY Forecast: What if Fed begins balance sheet normalization?
The political stuff is interesting
- could be dollar-favorable
French elections: Another seismic political event for the markets?
- FRA40 (underlying CAC40)
- Therefore a victory for Le Pen would likely be seen as Euro negative and due to the high levels of uncertainty it would bring, the EURJPY could experience some sharp declines.
Ősszel jöhet Európa újabb válsága - Napi.hu
- Ősszel jöhet Európa újabb válsága
Elliott Wave Analysis: AUDUSD and EURGBP | Forex Crunch
- Elliott Wave Analysis: AUDUSD and EURGBP
Round Two for the Euro
- Euro should dip somewhat, as nerves begin to kick in across the market. This may present an opportunity for a quick buy, probably around the $1.075-$1.085 range. Following this, if all goes according to plan, and Macron does indeed win, then the Euro is likely to climb to the level of recent highs, peaking perhaps a little higher than it did after the first round results were published. Given the general sluggishness of the Eurozone, and the Euro itself, this might then be the time to sell.
EURUSD: Range Trade
- The pair is at risk of falling further, particularly on a decline below 0.7410, with scope then to extend its slide towards the 0.7250 region during the upcoming days.
- buying dips today towards 1.0820 would seem to be the plan. Overall use 1.0820/1.0950 as a guide
- Why Le Pen
UK wages ex-bonuses slip to 2.1% - GBP ignores | Forex Crunch
- UK wages ex-bonuses slip to 2.1% – GBP ignores
USD Strength, Trade or Fade: Setups in Euro, GBP and JPY
- USD Strength, Trade or Fade: Setups in Euro, GBP and JPY
EUR/ USD: Multi-year 1.05-1.15 range will hold – Deutsche Bank
- EUR/ USD: Multi-year 1.05-1.15 range will hold – Deutsche Bank
USDJPY Stalls Ahead of 113.00
- There is no doubt that the market remains unabashedly bullish dollars, but FX traders are on hold for further confirmation from tomorrow's NFP report. If the number prints anywhere north of 170K jobs and if wages grow at 0.2% or better the prospect of a Fed rate hike is almost assured.
Trump mindent lenyom a gyengék torkán, csak hogy kényeztesse a szavazóit | PORTFOLIO.HU
- A NAFTA újratárgyalása valószínűleg elég munícióval szolgál majd addig, amíg nem készül el a tervezett adóreform.
AUD/USD analysis: eyeing Chinese inflation for direction
- Resistance levels: 0.7365 0.7420 0.7460
Can GBP/USD stay up or has it peaked? | Forex Crunch
- NAB targets GBP/USD at 1.31 in Q2, 1.29 in Q3, and 1.27 in Q4 of 2017.
Komoly fertőzésveszély Spanyolországban - Napi.hu
- Komoly fertőzésveszély Spanyolországban
DailyFX Analyst Picks and Forex Strategies
- We will use a break of the trend line near 116.60 as a clue the mood of the market may be changing.
- Short GBP/CAD
- EUR/JPY Strategy: Short at 123.75
Forex and Gold Forecast with Market Analysis
- According to Oddschecker, the aggregate probability of a Macron victory has fallen from 66.7% a week ago to 59.7% at the close on Friday.
Trading the French Elections with EUR/USD - 4 scenarios | Forex Crunch
- Trading the French Elections with EUR/USD – 4 scenarios
- Trading the French Elections with EUR/USD – 4 scenarios
- Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: V-Shaped Rally into Resistance
- This can be done in one of two ways when trading a reversal: 1) Let price action break above resistance, and then look for support to show-up around that same level. This would be around the same ¥117.50 zone. Or 2) trade the move much shorter-term, and look to buy a ‘higher-low’ in the shorter-term move in the effort of taking prices back up to resistance.
EUR/USD: Staying Tactically Short on perfect USD liquidity storm - Danske | Forex Crunch
- Danske Bank FX Strategy Research warns of the risk that a perfect storm may hit USD liquidity in H2 17.
UK elections with GBP/USD - full guide to trading | Forex Crunch
- How to trade the UK elections with GBP/USD – the full guide
Elliott Wave Analysis: EURCAD and GBPUSD | Forex Crunch
EUR/USD makes a third higher low in 2017 - room for a rally? | Forex Crunch
- If centrist Emmanuel Macron makes it to the second round, the pair has immediate room to the upside. If Fillon sneaks it, uncertainty regarding a Le Pen presidency could hurt. And if the second round is Melenchon vs. Le Pen, this chart can be scrapped and EUR/USD could crash.
French election concerns will be a key driver of EU markets - Westpac
- The support indicated at 1.1180 was ‘weaker’ than expected as EUR sliced through this level and dropped to a low of 1.1130. While the decline appears to be running ahead of itself, there is scope for a move lower towards 1.1105/10, the low seen in late May. Resistance is at 1.1170 followed by 1.1210 which is likely strong enough to cap any further rebound
- Gold prices are overbought
- , the yen encountered more selling pressure after a recent announcement by Japan's Mitsui Life Insurance Co revealed that the company is plannig to shift some funds to euro-denominated bonds from dollar bonds in the financial year to March, as currency hedging costs for the dollar are expected to rise. The company also expects the dollar to rise to 111-121 yen by March 2018.
- Brexit uncertainty will continue to cloud the horizon for GBP. In the context of G10 currencies we see both the USD and GBP as vulnerable and expect a choppy range centred around GBP/USD1.24 in the coming months.”
- US: Trumpgate and the economy - Rabobank
- That said if, as the polls suggest, Le Pen fails to win the Presidency after the second round of the election next month, we would expect relief to lift the EUR vs. the USD. Our year-end forecast stands at EUR/USD1.10.
- Brexit concerns are likely to re-emerge after the French 1st ballot as the 29th April EU (ex-UK) Brexit summit approaches
- targeting the pair at 1.06 in 1M and 3M (prev. 1.08), 1.09 in 6M (prev. 1.10) but keeping our 12M forecast at 1.14
- A daily close below 1.3224 would add to bearish sentiment in USD/CAD and expose a strong area of congestive support at 1.3000 next. The 200-dma at 1.3337 serves as resistance
- It therefore remains likely that the 1st ballot will result in a centrist (probably Macron) to face (and beat) Le Pen in the 2nd ballot. This would calm concerns and bolster EUR. In the interim, the volatility of polls will keep EUR vulnerable.
- . A clear break below 1.1105/10 would mean that we have to contend with a much lower EUR in the coming days (next support is much lower at 1.0915).
- USD/CAD is seen returning to the 1.25-1.30 range in the medium to longer run, noted strategists at Societe Generale.
Index - Gazdaság - Gigászi játszma része lehet Trump adóreformja
- Gigászi játszma része lehet Trump adóreformja
$EURAUD-descending wedge break?
- $EURAUD - Descending wedge break?
EURUSD: Prefer to sell rallies
- EURUSD: Prefer to sell rallies
EUR/JPY: Continued decline
- There is risk for USDCAD extending lower to target support at 1.3300. Below this, there is scope to re-test the April low of 1.3222 and then 1.3000.
- The Trump trade can return, But will it?
- The EUR/USD pair is forming another descending structure. We think, today the price may grow to reach 1.1170 and then fall with the target at 1.1100. Later, in our opinion, the market may grow towards 1.1132 and then start another decline to reach the first target at 1.1065. After that, the instrument may be corrected towards 1.1178.
- The EUR/USD has found resistance at the 1.0950 level and any dovish talk from Mr. Draghi could push it to 1.0800 figure as the day proceeds.
- The 1987 stock market crash revisited: Too many parallels to ignore, forewarned is forearmed
- unless the pair comes back below the 1.3400 mark the near term trend suggests that the pair could push towards 1.4000 over the near term horizon.
- Further losses could be expected eventually (perhaps next week) targeting 1.1145/45 then an excellent buying opportunity at 1.11010/00.
- However further losses target 1.2710/05 & Fibonacci support at 1.2690/85.
- Trade Idea: GBP/JPY - Sell at 143.65
- rock solid resistance at 1.38
- Gold could continue to rally if the geopolitical tension rise… else the fundamentals - falling inflation expectations and downsizing of the Fed’s balance sheet size - suggests the yellow metal is in for a pullback.
- EURUSD Found A Top; Weakness Is Already Here
- Look - the S&P is up 9% ytd and is up 16% since the election.....The Nasdaq is up 15% ytd and up a stunning 24% since the election....The Russell - the underperformer for the year is only up 3% - but is up 21% since the election.....- these are great moves - but in the face of Washington gridlock, lack of reform AND rising rates coupled with a shrinking of the FED's balance sheet - does anyone else see a disconnect at all?
- Bond market sell-off isn’t a rout… markets may have run ahead of themselves
GBP strength looks overdone
CAD could put on a great show against the Pound and the Euro
The AUD is on the verge of a breakout
- he ECB meets first, on June 8. The Fed meets the following week, June 13-14. Get ready. Before then, the ECB taper story could get some tailwind from hard data. We get German GDP on Friday, forecast up to 0.6% from 0.4% in recent quarters, and next week, Q1 eurozone GDP, expected better than the US' lousy 0.7%. And eurozone inflation is 1.9%, a hair from the 2% target.
- Although I’m bullish on the Euro on the longer run, I think the market’s reaction is a bit too exaggerated. I would rather wait for hard data to confirm the hawkish stance, especially on inflation, since the recent slide in oil prices may mean that inflation stays low for a prolonged period. If the Eurozone’s headline and core CPI disappoints on Friday, there’s a high chance that traders will book some profits.
- a more meaningful pullback in GBP looks to be on the cards.
- EURCAD. Support is found at 1.4832 followed by 1.4591.
- We do plan to sell this summer and go away
- As a result a decline began, which on Tuesday morning had reached the support of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1188 level. Due to the fact that the retracement level has been already pierced twice, it can be assumed that the support of the Fibo will be passed by the end of the day.
- USDCAD analysis: Waiting for a breakout or reversal
- Currencies: As of this writing the Sept. Euro is23 higher at 1.14155, the Yen 52 lower at 0.88870, the Pound31 higher at 1.2999 and the Dollar Index 5 lower at 95.690. Comments from the ECU and BOE on possible rate hikes have rallied the Euro and Pound against the Dollar and Yen. We are short the Euro above the 1.1320 level with a protective buy stop at 1.1520. We are also short the Pound from above 1.2800 with a stop at 1.3050.
- Elliott Wave Analysis: USDCAD Undergoing A Reversal
- The EURCAD has been in a steady rally over the past two months. However, price action is likely to show signs of topping out at the current levels.
- EUR/USD – Descending Bearish Channel – Elliott Wave Cycle
UK wages slow to only 2.1%, well below inflation - GBP falls | Forex Crunch
- UK wages slow to only 2.1%, well below inflation – GBP falls
EURUSD, USDJPY and XAUUSD TA – April 27 2017 | Forex Crunch
- nless EURUSD breaks out above 1.0941 to post a new high, we can expect to see a correction in store. A breakdown below 1.0850 will trigger further downside towards 1.0750 – 1.0740
EUR: ''Too weak"? – Rabobank
- Resistance at the September 2016 high at EUR/USD1.1280 area ahead of the August 2016 high near 1.1366.”
EUR/JPY RSI warns of a completion of an impulsive wave
- A recent rip higher in the spot rate has pushed the RSI above the 75% level. In Elliott terms, this technical event is often associated with 5th waves, prior to the development of a corrective phase. The EUR/JPY spot would have to gravitate towards the 50 SMA at a minimum to alleviate immediate upside pressures.
EUR/USD: 6 Reasons To Stay Bearish N-Term - Nordea | Forex Crunch
- EUR/USD: 6 Reasons To Stay Bearish N-Term – Nordea
Index - Gazdaság - Trumpnak igaza van: a németek tényleg nagyon rosszak
- Trumpnak igaza van: a németek tényleg nagyon rosszak
EUR futures: rising open interest hints at further pullbacks
- In addition, it could hint at fresh short positions being opened, opening the door for extra downside, which should find interim support around 1.1108
USD/CAD - has many things going for it [Video] | Forex Crunch
- USD/CAD – has many things going for it [Video]
When does political risk matter in New Zealand? EUR now a high beta currency
- EUR is trading like a high-beta currency, more positively correlated with equity performance and investor confidence than would normally be the case for a low yielding current account surplus currency.
In a low yield environment globally, capital appears to have been drawn more to equities in general, and investors have paid less attention to interest rate differentials and hedging costs.
EUR has probably benefitted from unhedged equity inflow and is vulnerable to a correction in equities. The market is also net long EUR and, in a risk-off environment, position squaring and deleveraging is likely to see EUR selling.
Brexit: súlyos következményekre figyelmeztet a főtárgyaló (frissítve) - Napi.hu
- Brexit: súlyos következményekre
EUR/USD: Tactical Profit-Taking; USD/JPY: Top Heavy - Barclays | Forex Crunch
- Barclays continues to forecast EUR/USD at 1.09 by quarter-end.
- Barclays continues to forecast USD/JPY at 112 by quarter-end.
Elliott Wave Analysis: AUDUSD Trading Sharply Lower Today; Setbacks May Occur!
- Elliott Wave Analysis: AUDUSD Trading Sharply Lower Today; Setbacks May Occur!
- USDJPY Ichimoku Cloud Analysis: Tenkan Crosses Kijun
Index - Gazdaság - Brit választások: nothing special
- Az egységes európai piachoz való akadálymentes hozzáférés elvesztésének elkerüléséhez valóban csodára lenne szükség,
de nem az EU döntési központjaiban, hanem a brit választók vélekedésében kellene ennek megmutatkoznia. Márpedig az egyelőre nem változik, szinte százalékpontra pontosan annyian tartják továbbra is helyesnek a kiválást, mint amennyien ezt inkább visszafordítanák.
- Ha a brexit-népszavazás nem sorvad el, mint politikai tény, ha nem alakul ki döntő, meghatározó többség a következő két évben a folyamat leállítása mellett, akkor az előrehozott választás semmit nem segít a brexit katasztrófa kilátásain, minden ezzel kapcsolatos remény és piaci várakozás alaptalan.
USDCAD pauses rally to dip back below 1.3600; bullish bias remains
- The market is at currently at a critical level and is testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement of this downleg at 1.3575.
GBP: Has it gone too far? 3 opinions | Forex Crunch
- “We have a 3-month target for GBPUSD of 1.26,
How to Trade the UK Election, Plus ECB & Comey Post Mortem | BK Asset Management
- We took some time to investigate how GBP/USD traded after the last 5 elections and there were 2 main takeaways. First don’t chase the initial move because it can be very strong and there’s almost always a 50-60 pip retrace so wait to buy/sell on a 50 pip pullback. Secondly, whatever move that happens tonight/tomorrow morning, you can expect follow through so wait for prices to settle and take a continuation trade during the NY session.
Index - Gazdaság - Bedőlhet az euró, ha elindul ez a sorozat
- Bedőlhet az euró, ha elindul ez a sorozat
EUR/USD: Trading 'Frexit' Risks - BofAML | Forex Crunch
- f Le Pen and Melenchon are in the 2nd round, as markets could start pricing Frexit risks.
- markets could also react negatively to a Fillon and Melenchon 2nd round, as the polls suggest Melenchon could win.
- EUR/USD at 1.10 in a positive scenario, but below parity and as low as 0.90 in a negative scenario
AUDUSD is looking for close below cracked Fibo support at 0.7386 for fresh bearish signal
- Former key support at 0.7438 (27 Apr low) and falling daily Tenkan-sen / broken weekly Kijun-sen (0.7468) should keep the upside protected.
GBP: When Will The GBP Peak? Where To Target? - NAB | Forex Crunch
- NAB targets GBP/USD at 1.31 by end of June, 1.29 by end of October, and 1.27 by end of the year.
Carney Carnage: 3 reasons for the fall and 3 for further falls | Forex Crunch
- Carney Carnage: 3 factors weighing on the pound and 3 reasons why it could continue lower
AUD/USD dips under 0.74 - 5 reasons and levels to watch | Forex Crunch
- AUD/USD dips under 0.74 – 5 reasons and levels to watch
Index - Külföld - Őrületes véghajrá a francia elnökválasztás első fordulója előtt
- Őrületes véghajrá a francia elnökválasztás
Dollar Lives or Dies by NFPs Next Week | BK Asset Management
- GBP/USD is now trading below the 20-day SMA and likely to drop to 1.2700.
EUR/JPY Forecast: Could test 110.92 if Le Pen comes out victorious in first round
- EUR/JPY Forecast: Could test 110.92 if Le Pen comes out
- Countdown to the French Election
Stocks Fluctuate Along Record Highs - Topping Pattern Or Just Pause?
- In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index
Már a legnagyobbak is csalódtak Trumpban - Itt a vége? | PORTFOLIO.HU
- eresztett le idén a devizapiacon a Trump-lufi.
EURUSD Trading Setup
What can the ECB learn from the Fed’s experience? – Goldman Sachs
- This is consistent with the forecasts from our European economics team that asset purchases will only end in late 2018 and that rates will stay on hold until 2019
USD: Fed To Skip Hiking But Will Announce 'QT' Triggers | Forex Crunch
- Danske Bank Strategy Research sticks to its view that the Fed will skip hiking at the upcoming meeting and instead announce the triggers for quantitative tightening (QT).
How to trade the French election - Nomura
- A forecast of 2.75% would seem to point to a currency rate of ¥117, a milder slope than our forecast of a rise to ¥120-125 within the year. However, we are expecting three Fed rate hikes this year, followed by four in 2018.
- We expect a Macron victory and expect EUR to have a relief rally. EUR would trade materially higher beyond the knee-jerk reaction after the event risk with the ECB moving towards tighter policy over the year, so we target EUR/USD at 1.15 by year-end.
- If Marine Le Pen’s support is higher than 30% we expect financial markets to be more concerned ahead of the second round.
USD/CAD crashes after Wilkins goes hawkish | Forex Crunch
- USD/CAD crashes after Wilkins goes hawkish
EURJPY out of bearish channel but capped by 200-day moving average
- The market would have to rise above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 118.85 of the recent downleg in order for EURJPY to shift to a more bullish bias.
Durva fordulat a franciáknál, krach az olajpiacon - ezek megváltoztathatnak mindent - Napi.hu
- A választásokat követően azonban vélhetően ez a kockázatkerülés eltűnhet a piacról, ami rallyt hozhat a kockázatosabb eszközök piacán. Ez azt is magával fogja hozni, hogy a biztonságos eszközök vonzereje csökken, s így például a német, a holland és a dán kötvények hozama emelkedhet. Persze ez a kockázatkerülés megint erősödik majd ahogy közeledik az ősz és a német választások, de nem valószínű, hogy a most tapasztalt mértékben - tette hozzá a Saxo Bank szakértője.
ECB tapering at the top of the list
- Bottom line: watch yields. The US should get a yield boost once the ECB declines to entertain tapering and Draghi repeats "lower for longer" on Thursday. The dollar has a fighting chance of putting in a corrective rise that conventional chart reading calls for. But there's often a slip between the fundamentals and the chart so don't count on it just yet.
GBP/USD loses support on 4 political developments | Forex Crunch
- GBP/USD loses support on 4 political developments
Is a BoE Rate Hike Closer Than We Thought?
- traders are refusing to overreact to the minutes and there are some good reasons why. The most obvious is that Forbes is leaving the BoE at the end of the month, reducing the number of those favouring a hike – and possibly the most hawkish - by one. With the economic outlook still challenging, wage growth will likely remain weak which should act as a drag on longer term inflation once the currency impact passes, assuming we don’t see further dramatic shifts lower in sterling.
Simple Forex scalping strategies and techniques
- Simple Forex scalping strategies and techniques
EUR/USD at 1.11 - can it continue higher? | Forex Crunch
- EUR: Further Gains S/T But ECB Could Disappoint Bulls M/T
EUR/USD extends the bounce on EZ CPI, 1.1200 closer
- Fresh bearish pressure is coming from 10/20SMA bear cross which is forming at 1.1212, with next key supports at 1.1121/09 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0839/1.1295 upleg/30 May low) being in focus
ECB guidance change coming? - Westpac
- Political risk may be reduced, but after French Assembly (11th and 18th) and Italian local elections (11th and 25th) markets will turn attention to the risks around German, Austrian and potential Italian elections (late-3Q /early-4Q).”
“EUR strength may persist into the ECB meeting, but is increasingly vulnerable to sharp set-backs if ECB change is limited.”
Technical Analysis AUDUSD : 2017-05-26
- Technical Analysis AUDUSD
GBP/USD: Risk of trading close to the 1.25 area by the end of the year - Rabobank
- Faced with the uncertainties connected with trade negotiations, we see risk of cable trading close to the USD1.25 area by the end of the year.”
Pick The Right Settings On Your Stochastic Oscillator (SPY, AAL) | Investopedia
- Pick The Right Settings On Your Stochastic
A word on financial markets and UK election outcomes
- he FTSE 250 has recently underperformed the FTSE 100, as UK midcap traders start to fear this election outcome. Thus, a large majority for Theresa May could see this index rally, and potentially outperform the FTSE 100 in the short term.
- Historically, a win for Labour tends to be pound negative, although we believe that Labour’s prospect of a soft Brexit could boost sterling, and we could see GBP/USD climb back above 1.30 towards 1.32 on this outcome. Concomitantly, we may see a sharp fall in the FTSE 100 as elements of the Labour manifesto may worry UK stock investors.
- A slim majority of 8 seats, as predicted by YouGov, is likely to arouse fears of a hard Brexit, as the 50 or so Eurosceptic MPs in the Conservative Party could sway the negotiations. This could spook GBP traders.
If this happens then we would expect GBP/USD to slip back towards the 1.25 level that cable was trading at before Theresa May called the election on 18th April.
- The latest YouGov Model sees Labour winning 269 seats, compared with 334 seats for the Conservatives, which would be a slim 8-seat majority.
Pound breaks above the $1.30 resistance
- Likewise, the SPX surged from $2’030 to above $2’400, which is more than 15% increase.
- Likewise, the SPX surged from $2’030 to above $2’400, which is more than 15% increase.
Now Article 50 is out of the way, let inflation lead the markets
- However, risks are now centring on Germany and the prospect of Merkel losing in September’s election and Social Democrat Martin Schulz winning. If this happens then it could de-rail the Brexit negotiations and make it harder for the UK to get a sweet deal.
- A tricky negotiating environment for the UK combined with rate rises in the US suggests a weaker GBP/USD to me over the long-term. While we expect some stickiness around 1.2420 – a cluster of sma support, a significant break below here could lead to a return to the 1.20 level from earlier this year.
- We expect the EU to release its draft Brexit negotiating document tomorrow, which could show us whether or not the UK and the EU are on the same page regarding starting trade negotiations at the same time as exit negotiations.
- Overall, weaker CPI from Germany today could lead to a weaker flash reading of CPI from the Eurozone on Friday.
More Losses for GBP? Big Week for Dollar | BK Asset Management
- . One way or the other, we expect to see 1.25 and probably even 1.24 in GBP/USD.
USD/CAD – Invalidation of Breakout or Further Rally?
- Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at 1.1052 and the initial downside target at 1.0521) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Soros György az amerikai elnök bukására spekulál | Magyar Idők
- Ezek szerint Soros György 764 millió dollárt tett fel arra, hogy az S&P–500, valamint a Russell–2000 tőzsdeindexek jelentősen veszítenek értékükből (az előbbi tőzsdei mutató az Egyesült Államok 500 legfontosabb részvénytársaságának értékét adja vissza, míg utóbbi kétezer kis- és közepes vállalkozást tömörít).
5 reasons why the UK elections should be pound positive | Forex Crunch
- 5 reasons why the UK elections should be pound positive
What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
- What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
EURJPY a good barometer of fear heading onto French election
- Buy stop 0.8520
- 1.09 at first, possible 1.12.
Kemény időszak jön - további durvulást hozhat a május - Napi.hu
- erősödésen van túl az euró
The Fed decision will roll the dice on the EUR/USD
- It’s quite possible that we may see another drop leading up to the expected US interest rate hike on the 14th with an immediate price target level being the 100 MA (~1.08) and the rising support trend line. Follow on USD appreciation will depend on Fed hints that it will hike again later this year.
Does the French Election Signal Trouble for the Euro?
- He believes that the Euro has not “provided Europe with full international sovereignty against the dollar on its rules and it has not provided Europe with a natural convergence between the different member states”. He has stated that the euro in its current state will be dismantled within 10 years.
EURUSD moved below the ascending trend line
- facing the 1.1161 support, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.0839 had completed at 1.1267 already, then the pair will find support at around 1.1070, followed by 1.1030.
EUR/USD: Expect a deeper slide to 1.1020 area
- he outlook remains bearish below 1.1160, for a slide towards 1.1020. Minor intraday support lies at 1.1080 and crucial on the upside is 1.1190.
- Euro tumbles broadly this week as some traders are betting on an early election in Italy, that creates some political uncertainty again.
Nagyon messzire merészkedhetnek az olajpiac teljhatalmú urai | PORTFOLIO.HU
- Nagyon messzire merészkedhetnek az olajpiac teljhatalmú urai
- Markets head into next week's ECB meeting with a very hawkish expectation. Scope of disappointment is high which increases the downside risks in EURUSD.
Comey testimony ends with no sense of charges pending against Trump
- Whither the euro? Probably a big fat correction down to just above 1.1000.
GBP takes a breather, but still looks good as we head into election season
- a Fillon/ Macron second round cannot be ruled out. If this happens then we think the euro, Cac 40, Dax and Eurostoxx index could be big winners at the start of next week, as all of these asset pries are negatively correlated with the French bond yields, and tend to rise when French bond yields fall, which we would expect if Melenchon and Le Pen are eradicated in the first round of voting.
Is the BOE trying to talk up the pound with their vote? | Forex Crunch
- Is the BOE trying to talk up the pound with their vote